Technological substitution processes - an evolutionary model
نویسنده
چکیده
In the first part of this article, a short description of the most popular models of two competing technologies (the Fisher-Pry model and its modifications proposed by Blackman, Floyd, Sharif and Kabir) and the multi technological substitution models of Peterka and Marchetti-Nakiüenoviü are presented. In the second section, we describe an evolutionary model of diffusion processes based on biological analogy, together with the method of its parameters’ identification using real data on technologies development. In the final sections the application of that model to describe the real diffusion process (namely, primary energy sources in the world energy consumption) is presented. The feasibility of using the model to predict future shares of given technologies and to build alternative scenarios of future evolution of structure of the market is suggested.
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